Last week’s TWTW contained Fred Singer’s science editorial on the report from the UK House of Commons Select Committee investigating ClimateGate. Fred termed the report a “whitewash.” Fred’s editorial was also carried on “Watts Up With That” blog by Anthony Watts. Richard S. Courtney, who generally agrees with Fred’s views, took exception to the term “whitewash” and posted comments on the blog. In a paper published by SPPI, Richard Courtney more fully develops his views.
If we understand his comments correctly, the Committee had no choice but to conclude its investigation as it did. The methodology used by the Committee was the type used by a court of law with the rules of evidence used by courts. These rules of evidence include weighing the credibility of opinions expressed. Greater credibility may be given to those in positions of authority than those who are not in such positions of authority.
Of course, this is contrary to the rules of evidence in physical science whereby credibility comes from the rigors of observations of the physical world. Authority be hanged.
If the above interpretation is correct, then those litigating against the EPA must recognize this difference. Fortunately, in ruling that carbon dioxide is a pollutant, the Supreme Court called for a scientific determination that carbon dioxide endangers human health and welfare, not a legal one.
A robust discussion on this issue may be appropriate.
This week two well known skeptics of the claim humans are the major cause of global warming released separate findings that many alarmists will no doubt declare supports human-caused global warming. On his web site, Roy Spencer reported that March 2010 temperatures measured by satellites were well above the 32-year average. This continues the atmospheric warming trend that started in the fall. William Gray, the founder of modern hurricane forecasting, with his colleague Philip J. Klotzbach released their predictions of a stronger than normal hurricane season in 2010. [For Spencer see http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ for the hurricane report see below.]
Alarmists will immediately seize upon both reports as supporting their cause which they do not. As both these researchers, and others, explain, such changes are likely natural, internal to the earth’s climate system, and not due to human influences. By promptly publishing their findings, Spencer, Klotzbach and Gray exhibit the integrity of reporting scientific results so essential for the advancement of science.
In other news, it appears that the alternative-energy edicts passed by California when unemployment was less than 5% and government coffers were full may be too expensive now that unemployment is 12.5% and government coffers are empty. Of course, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) continues to advocate “green jobs.” Affordable, reliable electricity greatly contributed to prosperity and welfare of this country. Yet many government officials continue to insist that more expensive, unreliable electricity is the key to future prosperity.
It appears that other countries such as Australia and New Zealand are also questioning the wisdom of imposing cap-and-trade or similar measures. Yet the UN alarmists continue to meet in planning for the next big offensive.
Casting aside any scientific or legal restraint, US EPA continues its march to control the US economy, more to follow in the next TWTW.
IPCC Latest Assessment Report (AR4): As discussed in the past few TWTWs, the IPCC claimed that it was less than 10% probable that the recent warming was caused by natural changes and less than 5% probable the warming was cause by changes internal to the earth’s climate system. Calculations from the IPCC report show the IPCC models project increases in greenhouse gases are about 25 times more powerful in causing warming than all natural causes. [Please note that the analysis ignored aerosols which are poorly understood.]
As expressed in last week’s TWTW, greenhouse gases cannot begin to explain the extensive warm period known as the Holocene Climate Optimum about 5000 to 8000 years ago when it was about 2-3 degrees C warmer than today.
In the Paleoclimate section of AR4, IPCC admits the Holocene Climate Optimum existed but declares it was not global. According to the IPCC the Holocene Climate Optimum did not exist in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans – their models show a prolonged cooling in this area.
Here the logic becomes breathtaking. The El NiÃ±o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the temperatures of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. During the Holocene Climate Optimum, ENSO was less pronounced than today, and was largely in the cool La NiÃ±a phase. There is some evidence that when, say Europe, is warm, the ENSO is in a cool La NiÃ±a phase and the reverse. Therefore, the logic goes, during the Holocene Climate Optimum when the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere was very warm, the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans were about 0.5 to 2 degrees C colder than today because ENSO was in the cool La NiÃ±a phase. Thus, according to the IPCC, the warming was not global and should be discounted.
Needless to say, the physical evidence presented by the IPCC is less than compelling – scanty at best. But the logic is staggering for two reasons. One, the IPCC rejects the hypothesis that a warm El NiÃ±o phase of the ENSO (that may be associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) could be a cause of the recent warming. And, two, satellite measurements demonstrate the recent warming is not uniformly global but mainly concentrated in the upper latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
Logic and physical evidence challenge the IPCC models and its conclusions.
[Recent studies, including one by McLean, de Freitas, and Carter “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature,” show a strong correlation between ENSO and tropospheric temperature with a 7 month lag. Of course, correlation is not causation.]
Please Note: Mark Gillar has begun a new radio show featuring well known skeptics. Those who wish to ask the guest questions can do so over the call lines. Today’s guest is Joanne Nova from Australia. Prior guests included Lord Monckton and Patrick Michaels. For more information please visit: http://www.globalcoolingradio.com
SCIENCE EDITORIAL #11-2010 (April 10, 2010)
By S. Fred Singer, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project
Holes in Climate Science
A recent News Feature in 2010 Nature [pp 284-287] discusses what it calls “The Real Holes in Climate Science.” The problem is that it misses the “real holes” and therefore echoes the IPCC mantra that warming in the last thirty years is anthropogenic.
The author, Quirin Schiermeier, bases his views on the ‘RealClimate’ blog and some of its authors. Needless to say, he has not talked to any climate skeptics. To give a better view of his bias: In his opinion, the leaked CRU emails do not challenge the “scientific consensus” on climate change but only show “rude behavior and verbal faux pas.” The holes he identifies are the conventional ones:
- Regional climate prediction – although this does not stop alarmists from attempting to publish such predictions that promote catastrophic futures
- Precipitation – everyone would agree that this is a “real hole” in climate science — difficult to fill until we understand better the formation of clouds
- Aerosols – even the IPCC admits there are huge errors when assessing particles such as sulfates, black carbon, sea salt and dust, all of which have different optical properties and can also produce indirect effects on clouds
- The tree ring controversy: QS brings back the hockeystick and blithely ignores the fact that it has been thoroughly discredited. He still insists that the 20th century is unusual in terms of temperature rise. He asserts that the emails that mention “hide the decline” and “Mike’s Nature trick” merely refer to the divergence issue between tree ring data and instrument data. He says that “many scientists are tired of the criticisms” – perhaps because they have run out of excuses.
He finally quotes Susan Solomon, the former co-chair of the IPCC 2007 Science Team, as claiming that “multiple lines of evidence support AGW” – without listing any.
QS tries to dispose of what he calls “Enduring climate myths [by skeptics]” – which all happen to be facts:
- Climate models cannot provide useful information about the real world
- Global warming stopped ten years ago
- Temperatures were higher in pre-industrial times
- Temperature records taken in the lower atmosphere indicate that the globe is not warming
- A few degrees of warming are not a big deal
- Measured increases in temperature reflect the growth of cities around weather stations rather than global warming
But the real holes in climate science are these facts, never mentioned by QS or by the IPCC:
- The absence of ‘fingerprint’ data that would indicate a substantial warming from CO2
- The absence of data for positive feedbacks that might amplify the effects of greenhouse gases like CO2
- The empirical evidence that shows the control of climate fluctuations on a decadal scale by solar activity by way of cosmic rays.
ARTICLES: [For the numbered articles below please see the attached pdf.]
1. Richard Courtney’s Comments on Fred Singer’s Science Editorial about the House of Commons “whitewash.“
[Carried in last week’s TWTW and “Watts Up With That.”]
WSJ Editorial, Apr 5, 2010
By Richard Lindzen, Modesto Bee, Apr 4, 2010
Editorial: Washington Times, Apr 7, 2010, [H/t Deke Forbes]
From Professor David Henderson, London Financial Times, Apr 7, 2010, From SPPI blog, [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
By Richard Lindzen, Janesville WI Gazette Extra, Apr 8, 2010 [H/t ICECAP]
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Warming after a cold winter will disappear quickly as it did in 2007
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Apr 6, 2010
[SEPP Comment: This article has extensive graphs that cannot be easily sent by email. Please refer to the web site given.]
“The pop in global temperatures, even the satellite lower troposphere, the last few months seems surprising to some in the Northern Hemisphere where the winter was hard. In Russia, it may have been the coldest on record, while across northern China, Europe and the southern and central United States, it was the coldest since the late 1970s or even the early 1960s. It was not unexpected. In the late fall, we showed the following upper level anomaly pattern was likely for the winter given the low solar, El Nino and developing east Quasi-Biennial Oscillation or QBO (shown in research by our own Climate Prediction Center to modulate solar and El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO.”
Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2010
By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Tropical Meteorology Project, Colorado State University, Apr 7, 2010
By Jonathan Leake, The Sunday Times, Apr 4, 2010 [H/t Bob Kay]
[SEPP Comment: Will polar bears be removed from the list of threatened species – or perhaps they now will be threatened by the growth in Arctic ice?]
California Dreaming and Other Lands
California‘s Green Jobs Mirage
By Senator Bob Dutton, GWPF, Apr 1, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
By Rebecca Smith, WSJ, Apr 5, 2010
By Samantha Young, Associated Press, Apr 4, 2010
By Gary Jason, Liberty Magazine, Apr 2010 From NCPA
America Headed To CO2 Prison [Maine]
By Jay Dwight, Energy Tribune, Mar 16, 2010 [H/t John Droz, Jr.]
Cap-and-Trade Or Emissions Trading Elsewhere
By James Weir, Business Day, NZ, Apr 9, 2010 [H/t Bob Kay]
Carbon trading on backburner
By Simon Kearney, The Sunday Mail, AU, Apr 4, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
Climate Change Act Will Cost Britain Hundreds of Billions,
By Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph, Apr 3, 2010[H/t Francois Guillaumat]
Problems with the Orthodoxy
Atmospheric Aerosols: Another Major IPCC Omissions
By Tim Ball, Canada Free Press, Apr 5, 2010
By Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post, Apr 3, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
Hiding NASA Decline
IBD Editorials, Apr 1, 2010
By Christopher Booker Telegraph, UK, Apr 3, 2010
[SEPP Comment: President Obama’s science advisor, John Holdren, is a former director of the Woods Hole Research Center. Some may find his power point presentation of interest which is still posted with the center.]
It Is Time To Rethink Public Policy On Climate Change
By Stephen Murgatroyd, Troy Media, Apr 3, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
When the Germans give up on AGW you really do know it’s all over
By James Delingpole, Telegraph, UK, Apr 1, 2010
The Orthodoxy Continues
Bonn or bust – The UN’s last, desperate bid for unelected world government
By the Viscount Monckton of Brenchley in Bonn, SPPI, Apr 9, 2010
UN climate talks to resume amid fear of more divisions
By Richard Black, BBC News, Apr 8, 2010
How Congress can get a smart climate-change bill passed
Washington Post Editorial, Apr 5, 2010 [H/t Conrad Potemra]
Science, Climate Change and Integrity
By Keith Hunter, Royal Society of New Zealand, Apr 7, 2010 [H/t Bob Kay]
“My personal prediction is that if they [the alarmists] are right, those who promote doubt and dissension, and thus inaction, will be vilified for their influence. If they [the alarmists] are wrong, nobody will care much because the efforts made to mitigate the now-perceived problems will lead to a better world in any event.”
[SEPP Comment: The author is invoking the Precautionary Principle in the manner used by climate alarmists. He then argues it is prudent to damage the economy and yield to greater government control of personal lives and liberties because it will create a better world.]
Errors in Royal Society of NZ climate change paper
By Ian Wishart, Scoop Sci-Tech, Apr 8, 2010 [H/t Bob Kay]
Scientists’ use of computer models to predict climate change is under attack
By David Fahrenhold, Washington Post, Apr 6, 2010 [H/t ICECAP]
“If policymakers don’t heed the models, “you’re throwing away information. And if you throw away information, then you know less about the future than we actually do,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.”
[SEPP Comment: If the models are wrong, then policy is based on them is not only based on ignorance of the future, but, worse, false belief of the future. During the housing mania, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston used a model to show that housing prices in the US would never fall.]
Former VP Gore to Receive Honorary Doctorate from UT Knoxville?
Former VP Gore to Receive Honorary Doctorate from UT Knoxville
Press Release UT Knoxville, Feb 26, 2010 [H/t Brad Veek]
Doctor of Lies
Investors Business Daily, Mar 15, 2010
“‘Vice President Gore’s career has been marked by visionary leadership, and his work has quite literally changed our planet for the better,” UT Knoxville Chancellor Jimmy G. Cheek said in a prepared statement.”
Issues on Nuclear Power
Atomic Dreams (Nuclear power not ready for prime U.S. time)
By Jerry Taylor, Master Resource, Apr 9, 2010
Nuclear Energy Facts Report – April 2010
By Theodore Rockwell, April 2010
New York Denies Indian Point a Water Permit
By David Halbfinger, NYT, Apr 3, 2010
[SEPP Comment: Another example of using the Federal Clean Water Act to deny permits to nuclear.]
Case Study on Methods of Industrial-scale Wind Power Analysis (Part I & II)
By Kent Hawkins, Master Resource, Apr 6, 2010
GE Leads U.S. Wind Market But Faces more Competition
By Paul Glader, WSJ, Apr 8, 2010
Solar Power Demand Fades
By Pui-Wing Tam, WSJ, Apr 8, 2010
Explosive Silicon Gas Casts Shadow on Solar Power Industry: Silane gas has killed and injured workers at cell-making plants. Can the photovoltaic industry live without it?
By David Biello, Scientific American, Apr 2, 2010 [H/t Randy Randol]
Stop ‘Big Corn’
Editorial, Washington Times, Apr 2, 2010
Backdoor Energy Tax
IBD Editorial, Apr 5, 2010
EPA’s ginormous power grab: Congress should block agency’s effort to regulate climate policy
By Iain Murry, Washington Times, Apr 8, 2010
Regulating CO2 Emissions for Local Air Quality; Another EPA Bad Idea
By Chip Knappenberger, Master Resource, Apr 5, 2010
More on President Obama’s Drilling Announcement
Drilling for truth and action in Obama’s latest proposal
By George Allen, The Daily Caller, Apr 1, 2010 [H/t Randy Randol]
Empty rhetoric, empty gas tanks: Obama’s energy policy is just for show
By Dave Harbour, Washington Times, Apr 5, 2010
By Michael Lynch, NYT, Apr 4, 2010
[SEPP Comment: A frank assessment in the New York Times.]
A Complete List Of Bad Things Attributed To Global Warming
IBD Editorials, Apr 5, 2010 [H/t Deke Forbes]
[SEPP Comment: John Brignell has been compiling this staggering list for years demonstrating his dedication to maintaining rigorous standards in science. Thankfully, at least one US newspaper recognizes it.]
By Robert T. Smith, American Thinker, Apr 10, 2010
[SEPP Comment: Article on how the precautionary principle is being misused with too much emphasis on precaution and not enough emphasis on realistic benefits from the opposite.]
Scientists Discover Heavy New Element
By James Glanz, NYT, Apr 6, 2010
By Ian Munroe, CTV.CA, Apr 3, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
The alarmist blog Real Climate.org, criticized the eight part special in Der Spiegel, mentioned in last week’s TWTW, which highlighted some of the failings of global warming orthodoxy. Real Climate ignored the substantive issues and claimed the series largely an attack on the scientists such as Phil Jones, former head of the Climatic Research Unit.
Below is an amusing comment by Jo Abbess, Comment # 5
I would like to propose that we form a “Phil Jones Devotional Circle”, and put a nice logo on our personal and organisational websites, linking through to a page here at RealClimate (or elsewhere) that extols the virtues of said Phil Jones, and catalogues his many great achievements.
That, at least, could warm Phil Jones’ heart, in letting him know how much we value and support him. If those suffering from septicaemia choose another target, we should have a “We Love…” page for them as well. I think it’s about time we had a page explaining just how much we venerate and adore Michael Mann, for example. And James Hansen. And Malte Meinshausen. And Tom Wigley… There’s such a long list…
Over Easter, I was reflecting on the work of J. S. Bach in his Johannespassion, based on Chapters 18 and 19 of the Gospel of John. So many parallels to the campaign to denigrate, humiliate and crucify Phil Jones…including that immortal, mocking question “What is truth ?”…
We could perhaps entitle our Phil Jones page “Der Jonespassion” ? Or “Stations of the Climate” or somesuch ? Or is that going a tad too far ?
By David Derbyshire, Daily Mail, Apr 7, 2010
By Byran Nelson, Mother Nature Network, Mar 23, 2010 [H/t Froncois Guillaumat]
By David Biello, Scientific American, Apr 4, 2010
What’s the Next ‘Global Warming’? – Herewith I propose a contest to invent the next panic.
By Bret Stephen, WSJ, Apr 6, 2010
Institute for Energy Research, Apr 1, 2010, [H/t John Droz, Jr.]
[SEPP Comment: It is good to conclude with a little levity.]