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With the press release from the Allen for Senate campaign announcing local Tea Party endorsements, Tom White of VA Right puts this in persepcective:

Additional Thoughts on the Virginia US Senate Race and George Allen by Tom White

Yesterday, I posted my thoughts on the Virginia US Senate race in light of the Press Release from George Allen announcing endorsements from members of various TEA Party and Patriot groups. (list below)

Some of the comments, emails and even phone calls have been both interesting and curious. And there has been a lot of talk around the Virginia online community on both my post and the Press Release in general.

I feel like I pointed out that the emperor was wearing non clothes. In essence, I was simply stating a fact.

From the beginning, the race to the Republican nomination to replace the retiring Senator Jim Webb (D-Va) was George Allen’s to lose. Or win as the case may be.

There was one single path to the nomination for any and all potential challengers. And it was a simple equation. In order to overcome the formidable support that the former Virginia Governor and US Senator already had in hand, it would take a united and coordinated coalition of grassroots activists behind one single candidate to even stand a remote chance to win a primary over George Allen. And even that may not be enough.

But if the stars aligned just right, it was within the realm of possibility.

The odds of beating George Allen dip to zero if there are more than one challenger in the Primary. Such a challenger will need each and every vote that is not cast for Allen to win. Splitting the vote spells doom for any challenger.

A three way or more race spells victory for Allen.

So far, it is too early to tell if there will be more than one left standing come primary time. That much is still up in the air.

But the other half of the equation that is necessary for a single candidate muster enough votes to take the nomination from Allen is full and complete support from Conservative grassroots activists.

The only path to the nomination for a challenger to George Allen is for both of those things to happen. Absent one element or the other, there is simply no mathematical way for anyone else to win.

Yesterday, the possibility of a full and unanimous Conservative grassroots effort to align behind a single candidate evaporated. And with it, any possibility of victory for anyone but Allen.

Many of the names on the list of Allen supporters released yesterday are friends of mine. Others I would tag as acquaintances. All of them are Conservative TEA Party activists. And leaders. And all Patriots.

Now one thing that seems to be floating around the internet (and elsewhere) is that these folks are not really TEA Party leaders as Sara for America pointed out.

And I agree with Sara that “others” are trying to paint the runaways as not actual leaders, and hardly patriots. (Although I think Sara’s use of a Gone With the Wind motif seems disrespectfully over the top.)

But her point was well taken.

And her reference was to a quote on Bearing Drift from Mark Lloyd:

“The Allen campaign has listed one-hundred folks from across Virginia that claim to be Tea Party activists. Some are members of the VTPP groups. But the VTPP has approximately fifty Tea Party and Patriot groups across the Commonwealth, representing an estimated 45,000 Tea Party activists,” said Lloyd via email. “[The Allen campaign has] only come up with one-hundred to support their campaign, and a large number are from the Richmond Patriots – a group chaired by Laura Alcorn who is a big Allen supporter. There are several others listed that are long-time Allen supporters, so it’s no surprise to see their names.”

“The bottom-line is it’s not a really impressive number,” he said. “One-hundred out of 45,000 doesn’t show much.”

First and foremost, anyone involved in the TEA Party movement is free to support any candidate they wish. The Virginia Republican Party considers supporting a non-Republican as an automatic resignation from the RPV. This is not the case with the TEA Party.

And the names on the list Lloyd is talking about are not simply minor members. Many of these have organized and trained others and with that single name comes a number of folks that are like-minded. So, the number of 100 is actuallt representative of a lot more that will support Allen.

And among the 45,000 Lloyd mentioned, a good number of these are Republicans who are also TEA Party members and who already support Allen.

It is absolutely incorrect to give the impression that there are 45,000 TEA Party members who are not Allen supporters. Truth is, nobody has a clue how many of them support Allen, but that number is, in all probability, quite large.

How many TEA Party members also identify themselves as Republicans?

Now for those who have commented that this race is not over, I never said it was. As an Indianapolis Colts fan, I have become quite familiar with this scenario. Often, the game is not really over at the half, but the winner is not in doubt. (And it ain’t my Colts!)

Jamie Radtke is an amazing woman. She is a brilliant organizer and leader, and would make a great politician. She is smart and has a drive that is both formidable and impressive. She is Conservative to the core and I respect her a great deal. We have talked many times over the last few years and I consider her a friend.

Tim Donner is equally Conservative, insightful and very intelligent. He is a successful businessman and has a talent for speaking in public. He is probably the most experienced of the contenders to Allen and would also make a great politician. Tim and I have spoken a number of times and I have done several podcasts and at least one video with him.

I have reached out to David McCormick and Bishop Jackson but have not, as yet, had the opportunity to interview them. I have, however, heard Jackson speak on several occasions and he is a powerful speaker with a great message.

I have also spent time one on one with George Allen.

I really have a great deal of respect for all 5 of these people who have offered their time and treasure in the effort to make Virginia and America a better place. All of them are qualified for the job and all are infinitely preferable to Tim Kaine.

So my observation that the TEA Party has failed to unite behind a single candidate, and indeed, a significant number have decided to support George Allen.

When you do the analysis, the outcome is as obvious.

That does not mean that everyone should drop out by any means. I am looking forward to the RPV debates and hope there will still be challengers in the race then, and I see no reason they should not be there. We need to discuss the issues. We need to challenge all of the candidates, including Allen.

But in the end, the outcome has already been revealed. This is not a reflection on the challengers, it is just reality.

And at this point, if you still believe there is a path to victory for a Republican in the primary to defeat George Allen without the full and undivided support of the TEA Party grassroots “machine” please let me know your thoughts on exactly how this will happen.

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level.

Henrico, VA – November 22  George Allen received the endorsement of over 100 Tea Party Patriots throughout the Commonwealth, led by Coby Dillard, Co-Founder of the Hampton Roads Tea Party, Laura Alcorn, Co-Founder of the Richmond Patriots, Strother Smith, President of the 10^th Amendment Foundation, Ben Marchi, former State Director of Americans for Prosperity and conservative Tea Party activists Tito Munoz and Carl Tate. These Tea Party Patriots cited George Allen’s strong record on fiscal responsibility, individual liberty and his unwavering commitment to protect and stand up for the Constitution of the United States.

“Governor Allen’s belief in Tea Party principles is evident in his desire to cut government spending and bring a greater degree of accountability to Washington,” said Coby Dillard, Co-Founder of the Hampton Roads Tea Party. “When elected, I believe he will carry our shared beliefs to the halls of the Senate, and continue the fight to leave a more fiscally responsible nation as a gift to future generations.”

“George Allen will restrain this over-reaching federal government and preserve the individual freedoms and rights that our Founders envisioned.  He has a proven track record of implementing pro-growth policies that help businesses create jobs, and the experience we need to get it done,” said Laura Alcorn, Co-Founder of the Richmond Patriots.  “George Allen is a true conservative leader who shares our core principles.  We know he will fight for our Virginia values and we are proud to fight with him.”

“The reckless policies coming out of Washington are eroding our liberties and bankrupting our future,” said conservative Tea Party activist Carl Tate.  “Now, more than ever, we need George Allen’s strong, steady leadership to get our country back on track and help America ascend again.  The path we are on leads to crushing debt, high unemployment and a dangerous dependency on the federal government.  George Allen is a proven, conservative leader who will fight for our values and we need him back in the U.S. Senate.”

See the full list of Tea Party Patriots who endorsed George Allen today below.

TEA PARTY PATRIOTS FOR ALLEN