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Will Egypt Survive the Current Crisis?

About five days ago, as the demonstrations were beginning to take shape in Egypt, I warned the brave Egyptian people to take lessons from Iran's 1979 hijacked revolution by the Islamists. I also warned them about Mr. El Baradei, who has been in bed with the mullahs of Iran ever since he was put in charge of IAEA. Mr. El Baradei was so delinquent in his duties that had it not been for the Iranian opposition group, MEK, the United Nations, IAEA and for the matter the United States with all of her intelligence might, would not have been aware of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

El_Baradei_AhmedinijadIt looks like that the Egyptian people are handling the situation a lot better than originally thought, at least for now.  They have, for the most part, gathered in the "Liberty Square" and are demanding Mubarak's resignation. All indications are that Egyptians have not embraced El Baradei as a collective leader, most likely because of his Iranian suspicious connections and frankly his lack of charisma and political experience.

It is clear that the movement needs a charismatic, politically savvy, and independent leader who can steer the egypt_6dmovement in the right direction. Mubarak's weeks, if not days, are clearly numbered.  He has several options ahead of him:  Leave dignified, like the Shah of Iran who refused to order the army to open fire on the demonstrators, order attack on the demonstrators much like Khamenei who lost legitimacy by unleashing his Hamas and Hezbollah thugs and Basij militia who arrested, tortured, raped and killed peaceful Iranian demonstrators, or relinquish power and provide means for the Egyptian people to form a true opposition body, representative all cross section of society and lead Egypt towards democracy absent Mubarak himself.

The situation is still very volatile. Implications are far reaching, should the revolution fall into the wrong hands such as the Muslim Brotherhood who assassinated Anwar Al-Sadat, Iran’s faithful friend, and gave birth to Al Zawahiri, Osama’s right-hand man. In my opinion, they are lurking in the background and waiting for the right moment to ride the tide and hijack the Egyptian revolt.

Rich with their 4000 year ancient pre-Islamic history and historical sites which are the envy of the world, Egyptians take in about twelve billion dollars from Tourism alone, which will definitely cause severe economic hardships if a theocratic government takes hold in Egypt. Already there are indications that, Islamists who want to eradicate anything non-Islamic, have attempted to break into Cairo’s famed Egyptian Museum.  Two mummies’ heads were ripped off a couple of days ago by “looters” who attempted to destroy the Egyptian artifacts. Much like Osama Bin Laden and Taliban who destroyed the ancient Buddha statues in Afghanistan.  Proud of their history, ordinary Egyptian citizens have taken on the duty of guarding their national treasures, absent the police force. 

One also should not forget about the Suez Canal, where, next to Strait of Hormuz, a large amount of oil flows westward. With two major strategic arteries at the Islamists' hands, the West will be thrown into energy crises of great magnitude.  Those old enough will remember energy crises in the US right after President Carter turned his backon the United States long-term and loyal ally, Iran.  This might very well be President Obama’s Carter Moment and legacy.  He might well be remembered as the President who lost Egypt.

Perhaps, there is a lesson for the United States here as well. Once a bastion of democracy, America during the past three decades hypocritically has provided only lip service to democracy and pro-democracy movements across the world, by supporting dictators, appeasing those who hate her and creating "false" and short term stability.

Dr. Arash Irandoost is the founder of Pro Democracy Movement of Iran (PDMI) focusing on human rights and pro-democracy initiatives. He is an Iranian-American activist, who works to inform and educate about the threat posed by Islamic Republic and radical Islam. He believes that Islamic Republic cannot be reformed and regime change is the only viable option. Dr. Irandoost is a researcher, a literary translator, an essayist, and a political analyst. He writes regularly for online publications such as New Media Journal, The American Thinker, Faith Freedom International, Free Republic, Israel National News, Right Side News, Global Politician and the Iranian Online magazines. The pen name Arash Irandoost is used due to his concerns for personal safety.



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