Steven A. Camarota is the Director of Research at the Center for Immigration Studies.
New Census Bureau data collected in March of this year show that 13.1 million immigrants (legal and illegal) arrived in the previous 10 years, even though there was a net decline of a million jobs during the decade. In contrast, during the 1990s there was a net growth of 21 million jobs and 12.1 million new immigrants arrived. Despite fundamentally different economic conditions, the level of immigration was remarkably similar for both 10-year periods.
- The March 2010 data show that 13.1 million immigrants (legal and illegal) have arrived in the United States since January 2000. This is the case despite two significant recessions during the decade and a net loss of a million jobs.
- Data collected in March 2000 show one million fewer immigrants arrived from January 1990 to March 2000 (12.1 million), while 21 million jobs were created during the decade.
- In 2008 and 2009, 2.4 million new immigrants (legal and illegal) settled in the United States, even though 8.2 million jobs were lost over the same period.
- The new data indicate that in the absence of a change in U.S. immigration policy, the level of new immigration can remain high even in the face of massive job losses.
- Immigration is a complex process. It is not simply a function of U.S. labor market conditions. Factors such as the desire to be with relatives or to access public services in the United States also significantly impact migration.
- Although new immigration remains high, the 2.4 million new arrivals represent a decline from earlier in this decade. In the two years prior to 2006, for example, there were 2.9 million arrivals, according to Census Bureau data.
- There was no significant change in legal immigration during the past decade. Although the number of jobs declined in the decade just completed, 10.3 million green cards were issued from 2000 to 2009, more than in any decade in American history.
- Illegal immigrants also continue to arrive, though prior research indicates that the number coming dropped significantly at the end of the decade.
- The new data not only indicate that there was a slowdown in immigration in 2008 and 2009, it also indicates there was a substantial increase in the number of immigrants who returned to their home counties, particularly in 2008.
- The overall immigrant population grew to 37.6 million in March 2010. This does not include those living in group quarters, such as prisons and nursing homes. Including these individuals makes for a total immigrant population of 38.2 million.
Introduction
The findings in this Backgrounder indicate that the number of immigrants who arrived in the first decade of this century was very high, despite a weak economy for much of the decade. For example, between April 2001 and November 2004 there was no net increase in the number of jobs. There was also no net job growth between January 2008 and the end of the decade. Overall, there was a net decline of one million jobs during the entire decade even though the U.S. population grew by roughly 29 million during the decade.1 Many factors in addition to the economy impact immigration levels. While the level of new immigration remained very high throughout the last decade, the number of new arrivals was smaller at the end of the decade than at the beginning. This almost certainly reflects, at least in part, the dramatic deterioration in the U.S. economy from 2008 onward.
The data for this Backgrounder come primarily from the March Current Population Surveys (CPS), collected by the Census Bureau. The CPS asks immigrants when they came to the United States. As already indicated, the March 2010 CPS shows 13.1 million immigrants arrived in the last decade, compared to 12.1 million arrivals in the 1990s. Statistically, the figures for the decade just completed are higher than for the 1990s. Based on CPS data, the first decade of this century was the highest decade of immigration in the nation’s history. However, data from the 2000 decennial census show 13.2 million new immigrants arrived in the 1990s. Statistically this is the same as the 13.1 million from the 2010 CPS for the first decade of this century.2 Thus, comparing the 2000 census to the 2010 CPS shows the two decades were equal. No other decade in American history comes close to the level of immigration in the last two decades. In the 1980s, which like the 1990s was also a period of economic expansion, 8.7 million new immigrants arrived.3
It is worth noting that the 2010 decennial census, which will be released shortly, has no immigration questions. There is another Census Bureau survey called the American Community Survey (ACS), which does asks about immigration. The 2010 ACS will not be available for another year, however. While the 2010 ACS should provide an estimate of new immigrants similar to the 2010 CPS, in the past the ACS has tended to show several hundred thousand more new arrivals. It is possible the ACS will show that immigration in the decade just completed will exceed that of the 1990s, even in comparison to the 2000 census.4 At this point, based on the CPS, what we can say is that immigration in the first decade of the 21st century was at least as high as the 1990s, despite very different economic situations.
Data and Methods. The data for this Backgrounder come primarily from the CPS collected by the Census Bureau. The March data, also called the Annual Social and Economic Supplement, is considered such an accurate source of information on the foreign-born because, unlike the decennial census or American Community Survey, each household in the CPS receives an in-person interview from a Census Bureau employee.5 The foreign-born are defined as persons living in the United States who were not U.S. citizens at birth.6 In this report the terms foreign-born and immigrant are used synonymously. The CPS generally does not include group quarters, such as prisons, nursing homes, and college dorms. The inclusion of those in group quarters would raise the total foreign-born population to 38.2 million in March 2010.7 The immigrant population in the 2010 CPS includes roughly 10 million illegal aliens and at least one million persons on long-term temporary visas, mainly students and guestworkers.8 Also, some percentage of the foreign-born (especially illegal aliens) are missed by government surveys of this kind.
Later in this report we examine the American Community Survey, which also asks individuals if they are immigrants. As already indicated, data from the 2010 ACS will not be available for another year, so it will be some time before data for the entire decade can be analyzed from the ACS. Data from the 2009 ACS are also used in this Backgrounder.
Recent Trends in Immigration
Figure 1 reports the number of immigrants living in the United States based on the CPS collected in March of each year from 1995 through 2010.9 Again, the CPS does not include persons in group quarters. Including those individuals would add another 500,000 to 600,000 to the total number of immigrants living in the country for any given year. Figure 1 shows that between March 2000 and March 2005 the foreign-born population grew by 5.2 million, or somewhat over one million a year. The figure also shows that between 2005 and 2010 the immigrant population grew by 2.4 million, or by about half a million a year. The 2007 figure of 37.3 million immigrants is not statistically different from the 2010 figure of 37.6 million. Thus, there has been no significant growth in the immigrant population over the last three years. However, the growth from 36.8 million in 2009 to 37.6 million in 2010 is statistically significant.10 Figure 1 indicates that the foreign-born population may be rebounding. While the growth in the last year is statistically significant, one year of data is not necessarily a trend and should be interpreted with caution.
Read full Report or Download PDF File
