This past week, in the Week that Was and the continuing debate on the climate
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
On Friday morning, the most intense earthquake ever measured near the city hit the Washington, DC area. It measured 3.6, the prior record was 2.6 in 1990 and records start in 1974, before the late 20th Century global warming. Some may consider this unprecedented earthquake a result of global warming.
Others may consider it a result of an article in Newsweek Magazine that suggests the major product of Big Green and its politicians, fear of global warming, no longer sells. As with all projections based on truncated data, omens are subject to interpretation. (See referenced Newsweek article below.)
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Although the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act (APA) appears dead, Senator Reid announced he will introduce, yet, another version of cap-and-tax this month by any other name. But both the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and EPA have produced studies showing that cap-and-tax will be economically harmful. The CBO report is a solid, prudent review of three studies: Resources for the Future, Brookings Institution, and CRA International. All report that significant declines in total employment will result from APA. Strangely, Brookings makes the unrealistic assumption that all nations, including China, India, and Brazil, will adopt carbon dioxide control measures even if the US does not.
In spite of its harmful consequences, with the worst year-long unemployment rate since 1982, cap-and-tax continues to reappear. To understand why, it is useful to further examine APA to grasp the financial incentives involved. Most macroeconomic studies (economy-wide) do not examine the incidence of the tax (who actually pays the tax) and, correspondingly, the incidence of the subsidy (who reaps the benefits). A study by Chamberlain Economics does. http://chamberlaineconomics.com/publications/
APA establishes allowances for carbon dioxide emissions which decline every year. Part is sold at auction to establish a controlled range of prices and part is distributed free to favored industries that can be sold or traded, ideally within the controlled range of prices. Using the mean of estimated prices in APA, Chamberlain Economics estimates the value of the of the part distributed free during the 2013 to 2034 life of the program as $2.1 Trillion - about the amount of total Federal revenues in 2009. The largest beneficiary is the electricity industry to the tune of $870 Billion.
Politicians claim the value of the free allowances to the electricity industry will then flow to the consumers of electricity. Chamberlain uses established microeconomic theory backed by empirical studies to show that much of the value will flow to the shareholders of the companies that are generally in the highest income group. Thus, the entire scheme results in a massive transfer of wealth from the lower and middle income groups to the wealthy. No wonder Duke Energy declared cap-and-trade will give share holders a $1,000,000,000 (Billion Dollar) profit.
Very interestingly, the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) industry, basically non-existent with an unproven technology, receives $246 Billion in free allowances - twice the 2009 budget for California. Given the sheer volume of carbon dioxide involved, it is highly unlikely that CCS will ever become viable. [As a side note, Lord Oxburgh, the chairman of the third "independent" British commission investigating Climategate, is also honorary president of the British Carbon Capture and Storage Association. (http://tiny.cc/mpitm)]
Using EPA numbers and established models from government agencies such as the U.S. Bureau of Economic Statistics, Chamberlain estimates the cap-and-trade decline in employment would be 716,000 by 2020 and 5.1 million by 2050. The estimated decline in wages would be $32 Billion by 2020 and $236 Billion by 2050.
Unlike far too many studies of this type, the authors recognize that these estimates have great uncertainty and can only be considered as orders-of -magnitude approximations rather than precise estimates.
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BP has successfully placed a cap on the gushing oil well, stopping the flow of oil and natural gas into the Gulf of Mexico. The drilling of relief wells to permanently seal the damaged well is proceeding. That is the good news from the Gulf. The disturbing news is the actions of the Federal Government. Various sources report that, due to the heat, the work rules for Gulf clean up are 20 minutes of work followed by a 40 minute break. If correct, this would outrage veterans of Iraq or Vietnam for the lack of a sense of urgency to accomplish the mission.
In spite of being twice thwarted by the courts, the Interior Department has announced yet another moratorium on drilling wells in waters deeper than 500 feet below sea level and reports indicate it is not issuing permits for shallower wells. These actions have economic consequences for the region and the nation. Already two shallow water drilling rigs have left and two deep water drilling rigs are leaving: one for Egypt and the other for the Republic of the Congo. It is sad to think that the owners of the rigs believe that the government of the Republic of Congo is less inclined to interfere with obligations of contract than the government of the United States.
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The Number of the Week is 400: The number of wild Canada geese rounded up from Prospect Park in Brooklyn and killed by the Agriculture Department on one day. (See 400 Park Geese Die, below). On day 86 of the BP oil spill, the US Fish and Wildlife reports the total number of birds collected dead with visible oil for the entire period is 746 (8.7 per day) and sea turtles total 14. (Visible oil does not mean cause.) http://www.fws.gov/home/dhoilspill/
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Book Of The Week: Over the past two weeks TWTW carried a brief review of Roy Spencer's The Great Global Warming Blunder. Spencer uses a simple computer model and nine years of data from the new CERES satellite instruments to separate the signal showing a feedback (result) caused by warming from a signal showing that a forcing (cause of warming) such as a reduction in cloud cover from natural sources. The IPCC considers clouds are a constant and the disappearance of clouds is a result (feedback) of warming, not a cause of warming. Spencer disagrees and estimates that a 1% change in cloud cover, from natural causes, would explain at least 75% of the observed warming since 1900. He suggests the natural cause for changes in cloud cover is changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
The Chilling Stars, A New Theory of Climate Change by Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder offers a different hypothesis for changing cloudiness: the interplay of cosmic rays and solar forces, particularly solar wind and magnetism. (Icon Books, Cambridge, UK, 2007, 230 pages plus 6 pages of notes and scientific references). The book explains in layman's language the complex relationships that may lead to formation of low lying clouds which cause cooling; and, correspondingly, the lack of which may cause warming.
Over 50 years ago, scientists (including Fred Singer) established that the changing solar wind and magnetism affects the quantity of high energy cosmic rays entering into the earth's atmosphere. When the sun is active, the solar wind is stronger and fewer high energy cosmic rays enter the earth's atmosphere. By 1996, Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen hypothesized that high energy cosmic rays hitting atoms in the upper atmosphere produce ions which act as catalysts in the formation of low level clouds. Their work was rejected by journals until Friis-Christensen announced it at conference in Birmingham England which was picked up by Britain's Royal Society. This resulted in a journal publication that was promptly ignored or criticized except in Demark, the home of Svensmark and Friis-Christensen.
In 2005, a Danish team conducted an experiment, called SKY, in the basement of the Danish National Space Center. The experiment supported the hypothesis that high energy ions emitted by cosmic ray collisions may act as catalysts in the formation of clouds.
The nuclear collisions of high energy cosmic rays in the upper atmosphere also create carbon 14. Caves in Oman and elsewhere show a stunning correlation between carbon 14 and temperature as measured by an isotope of oxygen, indicating a causal relationship.
This book lucidly describes the difficulty scientists who explore possible natural causes of climate change experience in obtaining funding in a world which gives billions to those claiming carbon dioxide causes global warming.
Starting in late 2009, CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is conducting experiments testing the hypothesis (CLOUD experiment). Svensmark mentioned to SEPP that he expects papers on results coming out late this year. We look forward to them.
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SEPP has joined the Competitive Enterprise Institute and Freedomworks in filing a petition in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Washington DC Circuit requesting review of the EPA ruling increasing mileage standards for automobiles. This petition is to complete the February petition to review the EPA finding that carbon dioxide emissions endanger public health and welfare.
Automobile emissions were cited by the Supreme Court as causing sea level rise. Of course, not mentioned was that sea levels have been rising for 18,000 years over which period they have risen some 400 feet. It would be amusing to have the court demand that EPA separate amount of sea level rise due to automobile emissions from the natural rise.
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ARTICLES: [For the numbered articles below please see the attached pdf.]
1. Killing the green wave: Most people understand what an independent public inquiry is
By Lorrie Goldstein, QMI Agency, Toronto Sun, July 14, 2010 [H/t Cooler Heads]
2. The Climategate Whitewash Continues
Global warming alarmists claim vindication after last year's data manipulation scandal. Don't believe the 'independent' reviews.
By Patrick Michaels, WSJ, July 12, 2010
3. Drilling ban is Louisiana's third calamity
Examiner Editorial, July 14, 2010
4. Environmentalists lose battle for public mind
By Paul Chesser, Washington Times, July 14, 2010
5. Gulf Oil Spill 'Crisis' May Revive Growth-Killing Cap-And-Trade Bill
By Arthur Laffer, Wayne Winegarden and Colin Hanna, IBD, July 16, 2010
6. Idled Gulf Rigs Head For Africa
IBD Editorials, July 13, 2010
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
ClimateGate
Climategate and the Big Green Lie
By Clive Crook, The Atlantic, July 14, 2010
[SEPP Comment: From one who is concerned about the risk of human caused warming.]
Don't forget Climategate just yet
By Lorne Gunter, National Post, July 15, 2010 [H/t ICECAP]
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Global Warming Theory: False in Parts, False in Totality
By Tim Ball, Canada Free Press, July 15, 2010 [H/t ICECAP]
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/25387
[SEPP Comment: Great uncertainties in wind speed and direction are components not adequately considered by the IPCC. Quote from the article: "As Jean-Francois Revel said: 'How is it possible for a theory, which is false in its component parts, to be true as a whole?'"]
Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10-1900
By Zhibin Shang, et al. Proceedings of the Royal Society, July 13, 2010
[SEPP Comment: HH Lamb noted that warm periods were generally beneficial to mankind and cold periods were harmful.]
By Walter Russell Mead, The American Interest, July 12, 2010
By Paul Driessen, Townhall, July 12, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
Defending the Orthodoxy
A Green Retreat: Why the environment is no longer a surefire political winner
By Stefan Theil, Newsweek.com, July 12, 2010 [H/t Joe Bast]
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/12/a-green-retreat.html
Climate Panel Struggles With Media Plan
By Andrew Revkin, NYT, July 13, 2010
[SEPP Comment: IPCC "transparency" requires all media communications go through headquarters.]
Climate wars
Does a warming world really mean that more conflict is inevitable?
The Economist, July 8, 2010
http://www.economist.com/node/16539538?story_id=16539538
[SEPP Comment: Not according to Chinese researchers- see "Periodic cooling..." above
Prince Charles attacks climate change 'sceptics'
London Evening Standard, July 15, 2010
Heat Wave
By Richard Keen and Joe D'Aleo, SPPI, July 13, 2010
[SEPP Comment: Nothing unusual about the July 2010 heat wave.]
CO2 Optical Illusion
By Steve Goddard, Watts Up With That, July 16, 2010
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/16/co2-optical-illusion/#more-22055
[SEPP Comment: Even using its own images, NASA's global heat wave was not global -larger area of regional cooling than warming.]
The Global Warming Guessing Game
IBD Editorials, July 16, 2010
Cap and Ban
By Conn Carroll, Heritage Morning Bell, July 14, 2010
"[Cap-and-trade] is not in my vocabulary" - Reid
By Marlo Lewis, Open Market, July 13, 2010
http://www.openmarket.org/2010/07/13/cap-and-trade-is-not-in-my-vocabulary-reid/
Dems revive global warming legislation
By Susan Ferrechio, Washington Examiner, July 14, 2010
BP Spill and Aftermath
Top Engineers to Investigate Cause of Oil Spill
By Lauren Schenkman, Science Insider, July 13, 2010 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2010/07/top-engineers-to-investigate.html
[SEPP Comment: Unlike the presidential oil spill commission which includes top environmentalists, this one has top engineers.]
Animal Autopsies in Gulf Yield a Mystery
By Shaila Dewan, NYT, July 14, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/15/science/earth/15necropsy.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
[SEPP Comment: With armies of people looking for dead animals is it a surprise they are finding more?]
Scientists say Gulf spill altering food web
By Matthew Brown and Ramit Plushnick-Masti, Washington Times, July 14, 2010
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/14/scientists-say-gulf-spill-altering-food-web/
[SEPP Comment: The issue is not that it will be temporarily altered, but for how long will it be significantly altered.]
BP: Relief wells may end leak within month
Washington Times, July 11, 2010
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/11/bp-relief-wells-may-end-leak-within-month/
New Ban Hits Oil Drillers
By Siobhan Hughes and Stephen Power, WSJ, July 12, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704288204575362862315524690.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Fouling BP Spill Just to Exploit Another Crisis
By Paul Driessen, IBD, July 14, 2010
Oil companies reeling from drilling moratorium uncertainty,
By Germain Moyon, APF, July 10, 2010 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hKPSczbK-GytOePyd8_TJ9nfhetw
Energy Issues
B&W and Bechtel Form Small Modular Reactor Nuclear Plant Alliance
Power News, July 14, 2010 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/2853.html
[SEPP Comment: Given the current anti-nuclear political climate in the US, the most likely customers will be overseas.]
Report: China to Build 10 AP1000 Reactors
Power News, July 14, 2010 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/Report-China-to-Build-10-AP1000-Reactors_2858.html
[SEPP Comment: As Washington continues to place obstacles on US nuclear development, China is building 23 new reactors. The AP1000 reactors discussed in this article are third generation reactors by Westinghouse]
Dear Virginia: Beware of a Windpower Racket in Your State
By Glenn Schleede, Master Resource, July 14, 2010
http://www.masterresource.org/2010/07/dear-virginia-windpower/#more-11038
EPA On the March
Bedbugs and Global Warming
Daily Bayonet, July 13, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
http://dailybayonet.com/?p=4684
[SEPP Comment: Another misunderstood correlation.]
Project's Fate May Predict the Future of Mining
By Erik Eckholm, NYT, July 14, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/15/us/15mining.html?th&emc=th
[SEPP Comment: Most large scale mining is ugly, and mountain removal mining is highly visible, but that does not give EPA the authority to invent science in order to implement policy.]
Review of Articles by NIPCC
Thirty Years of Antarctic Snow and Ice Melt
Tedesco and Monaghan, Climate and melting variability in Antarctica, EOS, 91:1-2, Reviewed July 16, 2010
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/jul/16jul2010a7.html
[SEPP Comment: No Trend]
Tropical Forests and Earth's Changing Atmosphere
Lewis, et al. Changing ecology of tropical forests: Evidence and drivers. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 40:529-549, Reviewed July 16, 2010
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/jul/16jul2010a5.html
[SEPP Comment: Carbon dioxide enhancement is a boon, not a curse, to tropical forests. So much for IPCC's Amazongate.]
The Real Ocean Acidification Story
Hendriks, et al. Vulnerability of marine biodiversity to ocean acidification: A meta-analysis, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 86:157-164, Reviewed July 16, 2010
["biological processes can provide homeostasis against changes in pH in bulk waters of the range predicted during the 21st century."]
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
400 Park Geese Die, for Human Fliers' Sake
By Isolde Raftery, NYT, July 12, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/13/nyregion/13geese.html?th&emc=th
British Gas boss announces brilliant new scheme to make Britain even more expensive and ugly.
By James Delingpole, Telegraph, UK, July 12, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
[SEPP Comment: Cover all the grand old buildings with solar panels.]
Culling farting feral animals could curb carbon, Pew says
AAP, News, AU, July 14, 2010 [H/t Best of the Web]
[SEPP Comment: No Comment!]
