Written by Joe D'Aleo
The mainstream mediasphere and the alarmist blogosphere has been ignoring or dismissing the dominos of global warming collapsing as the fraudulent machinations of the IPCC are exposed, NOAA and NASA and CRU data manipulation is revealed and their heroes Michael Mann and Phil Jones are being investigated, and this incredible winter unfolds in many areas of the United States and Europe and Asia.
China has had the coldest weather since 1971. Europe and Russia experienced brutal, deadly cold and heavy snows. Snow and cold surprised delegates to the UN Copenhagen global warming conference and followed Obama and congress back to DC.
Florida and parts of the southeast had the longest stretch of cold weather in history. Florida citrus areas had the worst damage since 1989. Washington saw a heavy snowstorm in December and now a record breaking storm in early February. Another one is on the way and will likely affect other cities further north.
In recent years snows have fallen in unusual places like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Buenos Aires, southern Brazil. Johannesburg, South Africa, southern Australia, the Mediterranean Coast and Greece. All-time record snows fell in many locales across the western and northern United States from Washington State and Oregon and Colorado to Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Vermont and Maine. All-time records were also set in southern Canada and now the Mid-Atlantic.
Snow returned to the UK reminiscent of the Dickens winters the last few years.
Washington was oblivious to the wild weather, so nature has brought the wild weather to their backyard. This storm brought over 3 feet of snow to a few spots around the nation's capitol, perhaps to estates of some of the nation's political leaders or media bigwigs (see list of snow totals here). See a news accounts of it here. It and following storms will ensure DC will have the All-TIME SNOWIEST WINTER ever going back to 1871. Expect the enviro wackos and their media lapdogs to come out and claim the storm and cold winter is the result of global warming.
The winter was not a surprise to many of the private industry forecasters, unencumbered by the global warming albatross. We expected the winter to be a harsh one (see here). The reasons we felt so was a developing stratospheric warming in the polar regions of the northern hemisphere favored in east QBO low solar years and east QBO low solar El Ninos and also in winters following high latitude volcanoes (Redoubt and Sarychev). The stratospheric warming started in late November peaked in December then faded in mid January. Often in years when it occurs early, it recurs later (2000-2001, 1995-1996, 1977-78).
The stratospheric warming leads to a negative arctic oscillation (exceeding 5 standard deviations in December and again in February) which pushed cold air to middle latitudes while surface temperatures in the higher latitude are cold but above normal under the warm ridging aloft. This kind of pattern happened in the 1960s and 1970s and indeed the winter is very much like 1965/66, 1968/69, and 1977/78 in that regard.
See how well through February 3rd, the upper level pattern has fit the expected pattern based on these natural factors.
Also we are back in the cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase which favors the colder El Ninos of the late 1950s to late 1970s (and again 2002/03).
Expect another storm this upcoming week with perhaps more snow for DC and this time further north, where less has fallen so far this season. The SOI hit an amazing 8 STD negative last week.
The water is warmest in the central tropical Pacific. A cold pool northwest of Hawaii also favors a cold central and east. That argues for a continued active southern storm track. The warm central Pacific and cold east also favors the same pattern as the East QBO low solar El Ninos, cold PDO. Once again natural oscillations provide a better indication of weather AND climate then the CO2, aerosol forcing dominated tinkertoy climate models.
Looking ahead, these stratospheric warming events last 4 to 6 weeks so since it began in late January, expect it to continue at least several more weeks. Cold air and snow will be returning to Europe too after the same January thaw we experienced here in the states before winters return. See full PDF here, Updates to come after the storms the next week.