(An Interview with Kourosh Zaim)
Note: The Islamic hard-liners are trying to convince the public that a plot in a form of a "velvet revolution" is threatening to bring down the Islamic government. The fundamentalists' regime has long feared a foreign-inspired upheaval. Ironically, they seem to have accomplished what their ubiquitous foreign "enemies" could not: They have planted the seeds for their own, homegrown velvet revolution. Whether it makes any sense, or is even believed by those putting it forward, Kourosh Zaim, (one of the leaders of the Iran's National Front who has just been released from prison) answers in an interview with Somayyeh Falsafi. (This interview took place before June 12, 2009 fraudulent election and the aftermath uprising)
Falsafi: Would the Iranian regime tolerate peaceful street protests?
K. Zaim: No. They will under no circumstances tolerate street protests. Their reactions to even limited protests by interest groups, civil activists, women's movement, student protests and worker protests or strikes have been vey swift and often violent. They have imprisoned tens of thousands of political and civil activists in all walks of life in order to prevent protests from spreading and becoming epidemic.
Falsafi: Why did Reformists always oppose drawing people to the streets even when they were at the height of their popularity?
K. Zaim: Even the reformists never felt at home with the people of Iran, because they knew they were elected at the cost of eliminating all opposition political groups and those outside of the Islamic regime's insider circles. They also knew they could never deliver the promises they made to the people in order to gain their confidence and votes. Moreover, they were elected to the seats of power, but they had no access to the power that goes with their responsibilities. So, one could say, that they had no say in what to allow and what not to allow. In fact, most of the reformist newspapers were soon shut down by the Islamic regime in order to prevent even the reformists from reaching out to people with their opinions and voices. This is why even the President Khatami, with such popular support, could not or did not dare to call for a mass gathering in order to voice his grievances and ask for more support from people.
Falsafi: Does a velvet revolution have the capability of bringing about change in ideological regimes?
K. Zaim: I am not sure how you are defining "velvet revolution", but if you mean forcing free elections by popular pressure, or forcing a government out of office by mass demonstrations, I would say it would be doubtful to work in Iran. Ideological regimes cannot reform, because reform means conformation to dynamic international standards of government, human rights and against the static beliefs an ideology is based on. For example, the communist regime in the Soviet Union did not reform due to public pressure, it collapsed. Same was true for Yugoslavia, East Germany and other Eastern European countries. An Islamic regime has more difficulty in conforming to pragmatic standards than a communist regime, because its edicts enter all aspects of human life and not just economics. So, I think that in Iran a peacefully executed "forceful replacement" may be more effective than what is popularly and romantically referred to as "velvet revolution".
Falsafi: What kind of methods does the Islamic Republic of Iran's election system use to prevent the opposition from entering the power structure? Can a velvet revolution be created out of Iran's election system?
K. Zaim: The method used to prevent opposition from entering the election process or being elected is a multi-tiered filtration system capped with a tight electoral control. The volunteers first have to register with the Interior Ministry which checks them out for basic requirements required by law. There they have to sign an affidavit pledging absolute allegiance to the constitution and obedience to the absolute rule of the Islamic Revolution Leader.
A lot of free thinking and democratic minded candidates refuse such obedience. Then the Council of Guardians of the constitution will review those who passed the Interior Ministry filter. They reject all who have shown the slightest sign of individualism or have expressed opinions bordering on criticism of the establishment. At this stage those belonging to rival factions within the establishment are also eliminated unless a deal is made for division of power.
Once the Council of Guardians announces acceptable candidates, they have only one week before the voting day to promote themselves and their views. In the case of presidential elections, the establishment promotes its own candidate(s) from months before it's in the printed press and the state radios and television stations which are all under tight control. In parliamentary elections, with the exception of few well-known personalities and those in very small towns and villages, none of the candidates are known to the voters. This will allow the voting poll assistants to "assist" voters in filling the ballots.
At this stage, a lot of dead people show up to vote with their ID cards, a lot of ID cards illegally printed outside Iran are used without real owners and a lot of people from poor areas are bussed into sensitive precincts and paid to vote or vote again in order to increase participation there. Usually, no independent observers are allowed in polling stations.
Next stage is the counting of votes. This takes place under tight security guarded only by the insiders. Therefore, no one knows what takes place during counting of votes. After the vote count is completed, it does not immediately announced. It eventually shows up in the hands of the Council of Guardians. There they doctor vote counts and voter statistics. Sometimes, eligible voter statistics announced by the census bureau, Ministry of Interior and the Council of Guardians are three completely different numbers. During the last parliamentary elections, according to the census statistics none of the elected members in Tehran and some large cities reached the required 25% of the eligible voter count. However, using the statistics announced by the Council of Guardians increased their percentage to over the 25%.
Once the candidates are thus "elected", they still have to pass a final hurdle and that is the approval of their credentials by the parliament itself which comprises of thusly elected members. They can easily weed out the few nonconformists who were able to wiggle themselves through the process.
A velvet revolution can simply be achieved by ignoring the Council of Guardian filtration, and by using a standard election process under the independent observers' eyes. The degree of filtration, deception and cheating is so great and widespread, that conducting of a free election can be considered a revolution.
Falsafi: Why do security and military officials and fundamentalists, such as in the IRI radio and television (in a program called "Democracy") try to make people believe that the "enemy" plans to topple the regime by a "velvet revolution"? They even explain very explicitly the methods by which this can be achieved. It seems kind of ironic, in fact, one can learn how to plan and implement a velvet revolution.
K. Zaim: By this, they have two objectives. One is that they want to show to those whom they think are planning a "velvet revolution" that they know and are aware of their methods. Second objective is to create legitimacy for their crackdown or violent treatment of those accused of participating in such efforts. They also believe that by explaining how this so called velvet revolution is executed, they disarm the potential culprits and keep other people from joining or cooperating. What they don't understand is that no two countries and no two situations are alike. Methods used in such efforts depend on many factors some of which are the make-up of the establishment, the developing or brewing conditions in the domestic arena and the international. It also relates to a great degree to the cultural element and the intelligent planning and/or taking advantage of the developing opportunities. If such revolution, velvet or silken, ever brews, the establishment will never be able to foresee it in time to be able to prevent it.
