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CO2 REALITY CHECK

I have been having some discussions (technical disagreement) regarding the fact that there were emissions reductions from 1979 to 1982 that had no effect on the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration, and stating that this was proof that fossil fuel emissions are not the primary source for the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Having this in my head, in reading one of your inclusions I found an interesting table from the IPCC 2001 TAR which listed the contribution from nature as well as the contribution from humans and the total annual increase in contribution from both sources. What is missing is the annual increase in human contribution. When you put in the approximate figure of 500 million metric tonnes per year for the human contribution, the table refutes the IPCC claim that humans are the prime source for increases in CO2 emissions.

I put together the attachment in a rather pedantic style (for which I apologize) just to make the point that the IPCC is so messed up that even their own publications refute their conjecture.

Cheers
Norm K

REALITY CHECK

Throughout the 1990's global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were increasing on average by about 500 million metric tonnes of CO2 per year.  This table from the IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report shows the annual increase in atmospheric CO2 over this time period to be 11,700 million metric tonnes of CO2 per year.

CO2_Reality_Check

This clearly demonstrates that only 500 of the 11,700 million metric tonnes of annual increase in atmospheric CO2 was from fossil fuels.

500/11,700 = 0.0427 or 4.27%

This means that 95.73% of the increase was naturally sourced.

The response to this increase is a measured increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 2.0ppmv/year.

Since 95.73% of this is due to naturally sourced CO2, nature is responsible for 95.73% of 2.0 ppmv/year or 1.9 ppmv/year.

Basic arithmetic shows that:

2.0 ppmv/year - 1.9 ppmv/year = 0.1 ppmv/year

If we reduce our fossil fuel consumption to a steady level with no further increases we will eliminate this 0.1 ppmv/year increase and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 will only increase by 1.9 ppmv/year.

If we reduce our fossil fuel consumption to a level that causes a 500 metric tonne decrease in emissions from year to year the atmospheric concentration will only increase by 1.8ppmv/year.

If we reduce our fossil fuel consumption to a level that causes a 1000 metric tonne decrease in emissions from year to year the atmospheric concentration will only increase by 1.7ppmv/year.

If we reduce our fossil fuel consumption to a level that causes a 2000 metric tonne decrease in emissions from year to year, the atmospheric concentration will only increase by 1.5ppmv/year

No matter what we do the atmospheric concentration of CO2 will keep increasing because natural increases in CO2 emissions are over 20 times greater than increases in emissions from fossil fuels.

If the IPCC models are correct and increases in CO2 concentration cause increases in global temperatures, the Earth will continue to warm at catastrophic rates regardless of what we do to reduce emissions.

REALITY CHECK!!!!

First of all this table demonstrates that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are not the primary source for the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, and in fact fossil fuel CO2 emissions account for less than 5% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Second and most importantly, the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, regardless of source, is not causing an increase in global temperature as demonstrated by the past eight years of cooling with steadily increasing CO2 concentration and the ever increasing CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

This flies in the face of IPCC statements that the Earth is warming and this warming is caused by humans.

Norm K.

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Norm Kalmanovitch for ClimateRealists.com

    

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