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In summary, an estimated 11.8 million unauthorized immigrants were living in the United States in January 2007 compared to 8.5 million in 2000 (Hoefer, Rytina, and Campbell, 2006). Between 2000 and 2007, the unauthorized population increased 3.3 million; the annual average increase during this period was 470,000. Nearly 4.2 million (35 percent) of the total 11.8 million unauthorized residents in 2007 had entered in 2000 or later. An estimated 7.0 million (59 percent) were from Mexico.

The legally resident immigrant population as defined for these estimates includes all persons who were granted lawful permanent residence; granted asylee status; admitted as refugees; or admitted as nonimmigrants for a temporary stay in the United States and not required to leave by January 1, 2007. Nonimmigrant residents refer to certain aliens who were legally admitted temporarily to the United States for specified time periods such as students and temporary workers.

The unauthorized resident immigrant population is defined as all foreign-born non-citizens who are not legal residents. Unauthorized residents refer to foreign-born persons who entered the United States without inspection or were admitted temporarily and stayed past the date they were required to leave. Unauthorized immigrants applying for adjustment to lawful permanent residence under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 245(i) are unauthorized until they have been granted LPR status, even though they may have been authorized to work. Similarly, unauthorized immigrants who have applied for asylum or Temporary Protected Status (TPS) are considered to be unauthorized residents. Persons who are beneficiaries of TPS are technically not unauthorized but were excluded from the legally resident immigrant population because data are unavailable in sufficient detail to estimate this population.

Two populations are estimated in order to derive the unauthorized population estimates: 1) the total-foreign born population living in the United States on January 1, 2007, and 2) the legally resident population on the same date. The unauthorized population is equal to 1) minus 2). It was assumed that foreign-born residents who had entered the United States prior to 1980 were legally resident since most were eligible for legal permanent resident status.1 Therefore, the starting point for the estimates was January 1, 1980. The steps involved in estimating the components of each population are shown in Appendix 1.

Data on the foreign-born population that entered during 1980-2006 by country of birth, state of residence, year of entry, age and gender were obtained from the 2006 American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS is a nationwide sample survey that collects information from U.S. households on social, demographic, and economic characteristics, including country of birth and year of entry of the foreign-born population. The ACS consists of non-overlapping samples from which information is collected monthly over the course of a year. The ACS was selected for the estimates because of its large sample size, about 3 million households in 2006 compared to 100,000 for the March 2007 Current Population Survey, the primary alternative source of national data on the foreign-born population.

Data on persons who obtained LPR status by country of birth, state of residence, age, category of admission, and year of entry were obtained from DHS administrative records maintained in an application case tracking system of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). Data on refugees arriving in the United States by country of origin were obtained from the Department of State. Data on persons granted asylum by country of origin were obtained from USCIS for those granted asylum affirmatively and from the Executive Office of Immigration Review of the Department of Justice for those granted asylum defensively through removal proceedings. Data on nonimmigrant admissions by country of citizenship, state of residence, age, and class of admission were obtained from I-94 arrival-departure records in the Treasury Enforcement Communications System (TECS) of U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The estimates were generated by country of birth and state of residence for the unauthorized population living in the 50 States and the District of Columbia. The Cuban-born population living in the United States was excluded from the estimates since, according to immigration law, Cubans living in the United States more than a year are eligible to apply to adjust to LPR status.

Changes in the size of the unauthorized population presented in this report rely on the annual average change between 2000 and 2007. Annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population are subject to sampling error and a considerable amount of nonsampling error because of uncertainty in some of the assumptions required for estimation. Calculating annual change over a period of years smoothes the fluctuations that may occur in adjacent years.

Assumptions about undercount of the foreign-born population in the ACS and rates of emigration. These are the primary sources of error in these estimates. The estimates are sensitive to the assumptions that are made about these components (see RESULTS). Accuracy of year of entry reporting. Concerns exist among immigration analysts regarding the validity and reliability of Census survey data on the year of entry question "When did this person come to live in the United States?" Errors also occur in converting DHS administrative dates for legally resident immigrants to year of entry dates. Assumptions about the nonimmigrant population estimate. The estimates are based on admission counts and length of visit by class of admission and not actual population counts. Length of visit, which is calculated by matching arrival and departure records, is subject to more error than admissions data.Sampling error in the ACS. The 2006 ACS data are based on a sample of the U.S. population. Thus the estimates of the total foreign-born population that moved to the United States in the 1980-2006 period are subject to sampling variability. The estimated margin of error for the estimate of the foreign-born population in the 2006 ACS at the 90 percent confidence level is plus or minus approximately 125,000. Accuracy of state of residence for the legally resident population. State of residence for legally resident 1980-2006 entrants is assumed to be the state of residence on the date the most recent status (e.g. refugee, LPR, or naturalized citizen) was obtained; however, the accuracy of the estimates may be affected by state-to-state migration that occurred between the date of the status change and January 1, 2007.

DHS estimates that the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States increased from 8.5 million in January 2000 to 10.5 million in January 2005, 11.3 million in January 20062, and 11.8 million in January 2007 (see Figure 1). The annual average net increase in the unauthorized population during this 7-year period was 470,000.