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Spotless Sun Prompts Scientist to Fear Dramatic Turn into Global Cooling

Written by Marc Morano

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August 21, 2008
Marc Morano Round-Up Part II
(also see Part I)
National Post: Global Cooling! 'Spotless Sun' prompts scientists to fear 'dramatic turn for the worse' - May 31, 2008
Excerpt: ith the debate focused on a warming Earth, the icy consequences of a cooler future have not been considered You probably haven't heard much of Solar Cycle 24, the current cycle that our sun has entered, and I hope you don't. If Solar Cycle 24 becomes a household term, your lifestyle could be taking a dramatic turn for the worse.

 

That of your children and their children could fare worse still, say some scientists, because Solar Cycle 24 could mark a time of profound long-term change in the climate. As put by geophysicist Philip Chapman, a former NASA astronaut-scientist and former president of the National Space Society, "It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age." The sun, of late, is remarkably free of eruptions: It has lost its spots. By this point in the solar cycle, sunspots would ordinarily have been present in goodly numbers. 

Today's spotlessness - what alarms Dr. Chapman and others - may be an anomaly of some kind, and the sun may soon revert to form. But if it doesn't - and with each passing day, the speculation in the scientific community grows that it will not - we could be entering a new epoch that few would welcome. [...] Several renowned scientists have been predicting for some time that the world could enter a period of cooling right around now, with consequences that could be dire. "The next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do," believes Dr. Chapman. "There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the U.S. and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it." NATIONAL POST LINK

We should prepare now for dangerous global cooling (By Paleoclimatologist Tim Patterson, professor in the department of Earth Sciences at Carleton University in Ottawa)
Excerpt: Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada. As a country at the northern limit to agriculture in the world, it would take very little cooling to destroy much of our food crops, while a warming would only require that we adopt farming techniques practiced to the south of us.
FINANCIAL POST LINK 
 
Geologist Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Emeritus Professor at Western Washington University, who has authored eight books and 150 journal publications, predicts that temperatures should cool between 2065 until 2100, and that global temperatures at the end of the century should be less than 1 degree cooler than at present.

This is in contrast to other theories that there will be a warming by as much as 10 degrees by 2100.  - Excerpts of sampling of scientists predicting a coming global cooling Geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook, an emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University who has authored eight books and 150 journal publications, announced earlier this week that he was putting his "reputation on the line" by predicting global cooling.

"The average of the four main temperature measuring methods is slightly cooler since 2002 (except for a brief el Niño interruption) and record breaking cooling this winter. The argument that this is too short a time period to be meaningful would be valid were it not for the fact that this cooling exactly fits the pattern of timing of warm/cool cycles over the past 400 years," Easterbrook wrote on March 1, 2008. (LINK <> )
 
Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States - March 2, 2008 (By Geologist David Archibald of Summa Development Limited in Australia is a Perth-based scientist working in the field of climate research. Archibald .wrote a scientific paper titled "Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and Predicted Climate Response" in Energy and Environment in 2006)

Excerpt: I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth's climate to 2030. It is a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a prediction of imminent cooling. [...] We have 29 years of satellite temperature data. It shows that the temperature of the Southern Hemisphere has been flat, with a slight increase in the Northern Hemisphere. Note the El Nino peak in 1998. Globally, we have had 10 years of temperature decline since that peak in 1998, with a rate of decline of 0.06 degrees per annum.

I am expecting the rate of decline to accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum from the end of this decade. That satellite record is corroborated by the record of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice extent over the same period. There is no long term trend evident. Most recently, there has been a 1 million square kilometre increase over the long term mean. This is a five per cent increase. [...] The peak US temperature was in 1936, at much the same time that Total Solar Irradiance peaked. If you have wondered why US temperatures are still lower than what they were 70 years ago, the fact that Total Solar Irradiance is lower than what it was 70 years ago might provide an explanation.
Warwick Hughes.com

Geologist David Archibald reveals CO2 is ‘tuckered out as a greenhouse gas' - May 12, 2008
Excerpt: The more carbon dioxide you put into the atmosphere, the more you are helping all plants on the planet to grow, and of course that makes you a better person. Virtue is in direct proportion to your carbon dioxide output. What of the temperature, you ask? Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, but the effect is strongly logarithmic. The first 20 ppm achieves 1.5 degrees of heating, but it takes more than another 400 ppm to equal that.

By the time we get to the current level of 384 ppm, carbon dioxide is tuckered out as a greenhouse gas. From here, every 100 ppm extra may be worth 0.1 of a degree.  [...] Surely a few more years of cooling will leave only the true believers in their misanthropic ideology, and the truly idiotic. [...]  Not only will it continue, substantial cooling next decade is in the bag based on current solar behavior. There is a good correlation between solar cycle length and the temperature over the following solar cycle. Long solar cycles cause lower temperatures. 
Daily Telegraph LINK 
Canadian Climatologist Dr. Timothy Ball: "If we are facing [a crisis] at all, I think it is that we are preparing for warming when it is looking like we are cooling. We are preparing for the wrong thing." (March 2008) 
EPW LINK 

UK Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn: "There is no evidence that CO2 has ever driven or will ever drive world temperatures and climate change. The consequence of that is that worrying about CO2 is irrelevant. Our prediction is world temperatures will continue to decline until 2014 and probably continue to decline after that." (March 2008) 
EPW LINK 

Dearth Of Sunspot Activity To Herald New Ice Age? - August 14, 2008
Excerpt:A top observatory that has been measuring sun cycles for over 200 years predicts that global temperatures will drop by two degrees over the next two decades as solar activity grinds to a halt and the planet drastically cools down, potentially heralding the onset of a new ice age. While the mass media, Al Gore and politicized bodies like the IPCC scaremonger about the perils of global warming and demand the poor and middle class pay CO2 taxes, both hard scientific data and circumstantial evidence points to a clear cooling trend. Following the end of the Sun's most active period in over 11,000 years, the last 10 years have displayed a clear cooling trend as temperatures post-1998 leveled out and are now plummeting. [...] 

Long-time man-made global warming advocates NASA assure us that significant sunspot activity will return in 2012, but a recent a paper on recent solar trends by William Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, predicts that sunspots will all but vanish after 2015. Since the sun, and not carbon dioxide, is the principle driver of climate change, a dearth of sunspot activity would herald a repeat of the Maunder Minimum, the name given to the period roughly from 1645 to 1715, when sunspots became exceedingly rare and contributed to the onset of the Little Ice Age during which Europe and North America were hit by bitterly cold winters and the Thames river in London completely froze.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/dearth-of-sunspot-activity-to-herald-new-ice-age.html

Livingston and Penn paper: "Sunspots may vanish by 2015?. - June 2, 2008 - By Meteorologist Anthony Watts
Excerpt:From the "I hope to God they are flat wrong department", here is the abstract of a short paper on recent solar trends by William Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson. It was sent to me by reader Mike Ward.I previously highlighted a news story on this paper on May 21st, but didn't have the actual paper until now. If anyone has an update to this paper, which uses data up to 2005, please use the comment form to advise. Here is the complete paper, and below are some excerpts: Abstract: We have observed spectroscopic changes in temperature sensitive molecular lines, in the magnetic splitting of an Fe I line, and in the continuum brightness of over 1000 sunspot umbrae from 1990-2005. All three measurements show consistent trends in which the darkest parts of the sunspot umbra have become warmer (45K per year) and their magnetic field strengths have decreased (77 Gauss per year), independently of the normal 11-year sunspot cycle. A linear extrapolation of these trends suggests that few sunspots will be visible after 2015. 
Whats Up with That LINK 

More Signs of the Sun Slowing Down - 'We continue to slide into a deeper than normal solar minima, one not seen in decades' By Meteorologist Anthony Watts - June 15, 2008
Excerpt: It appears we continue to slide into a deeper than normal solar minima, one not seen in decades. Given the signs, I think we are about to embark upon a grand experiment, over which we have no control [...] I had noted that there was a curios step function in 2005, almost as if something had "switched off" [...] As you can see, the Ap Index has continued along at the low level (slightly above zero) that was established during the drop in October 2005. As of June 2008, we now have 32 months of the Ap hovering around a value just slightly above zero, with occasional blips of noise. [...] What is most striking is that since 1932, there have not been ANY years prior to 2007 that have zero data. [...] 
LINK

Four prominent scientists warn 'global warming out, global cooling in'- ‘Potential for a significant decline in the average mean temperature' - July 12, 2008 LINK & LINK  
Excerpt: Four scientists, four scenarios, four more or less similar conclusions without actually saying it outright - the global warming trend is done, and a cooling trend is about to kick in. The implication: Future energy price response is likely to be significant. Late last month, some leading climatologists and meteorologists met in New York at the Energy Business Watch Climate and Hurricane Forum.

The theme of the forum strongly suggested that a period of global cooling is about emerge, though possible concerns for a political backlash kept it from being spelled out. However, the message was loud and clear, a cyclical global warming trend may be coming to an end for a variety of reasons, and a new cooling cycle could impact the energy markets in a big way. Words like "highly possible," "likely" or "reasonably convincing" about what may soon occur were used frequently. Then there were other words like "mass pattern shift" and "wholesale change in anomalies" and "changes in global circulation." Noted presenters, such as William Gray, Harry van Loon, Rol Madden and Dave Melita, signaled in the strongest terms that huge climate changes are afoot. Each weather guru, from a different angle, suggested that global warming is part of a cycle that is nearing an end. All agreed the earth is in a warm cycle right now, and has been for a while, but that is about to change significantly. [...]  We are on our way out of the latest (warming) cycle, and are headed for a new cycle of low (solar) activity," van Loon said.

"There is a change coming. We may see 180-degree changes in anomalies during high and low sunspot periods. There were three global climate changes in the last century, there is a change coming now." [...] Perhaps the best known speaker was Colorado State University's Gray, founder of the school's famed hurricane research team. Gray spoke about multi-decade periods of warming and cooling and how global climate flux has been the norm for as long as there have been records. Gray has taken quite a bit of political heat for insistence that global warming is not a man-made condition. Man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) is negligible, he said, compared to the amount of CO2 Mother Nature makes and disposes of each day or century. "We've reached the top of the heat cycle," he said. "The next 10 years will be hardly any warmer than the last 10 years."
LINK 

Arctic ice INCREASES by nearly a half million square miles over same time period in 2007 - July 18, 2008 -LINK 
Excerpt: the latest information on Arctic ice conditions is just in from the National Snow and Ice Data Center <http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/>  and Maggie Rodriguez can breath easy (emphasis mine):
Arctic sea ice extent on July 16 stood at 8.91 million square kilometers (3.44 square miles). While extent was below the 1979 to 2000 average of 9.91 square kilometers (3.83 million square miles), it was 1.05 million square kilometers (0.41 million square miles) above the value for July 16, 2007...
News Busters Link 

Oceans Cooling! Scientists puzzled by "mystery of global warming's missing heat"- March 19, 2008 -
Excerpt:Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what their robots are telling them. [...]Josh Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming. [...]  "There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant," Willis says. So the buildup of heat on Earth may be on a brief hiatus. [...]It's also possible that some of the heat has gone even deeper into the ocean, he says. Or it's possible that scientists need to correct for some other feature of the planet they don't know about. It's an exciting time, though, with all this new data about global sea temperature, sea level and other features of climate. "I suspect that we'll able to put this together with a little bit more perspective and further analysis," Trenberth says. "But what this does is highlight some of the issues and send people back to the drawing board."
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

Science Daily: Scientists not sure why Sun 'continues to be dead' - June 9, 2008
Excerpt: The sun has been laying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites. That's good news for people who scramble when space weather interferes with their technology, but it became a point of discussion for the scientists who attended an international solar conference at Montana State University. Approximately 100 scientists from Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and North America gathered June 1-6 to talk about "Solar Variability, Earth's Climate and the Space Environment." The scientists said periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual. "It continues to be dead," said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission. [...] The last cycle reached its peak in 2001 and is believed to be just ending now, Longcope said. The next cycle is just beginning and is expected to reach its peak sometime around 2012.

Today's sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why. "It's a dead face," Tsuneta said of the sun's appearance. Tsuneta said solar physicists aren't like weather forecasters; They can't predict the future. They do have the ability to observe, however, and they have observed a longer-than-normal period of solar inactivity. In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period, from approximately 1650 to 1700, occurred during the middle of a little ice age on Earth that lasted from as early as the mid-15th century to as late as the mid-19th century.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080609124551.htm

Cooling Underway: Global Temperature Continues to Drop in May - 'Significantly Colder' - 16-month temperature drop of -0.774°C!
Excerpt:Global temperatures continued to slide in May 2008.  Meteorologist Anthony Watts details the cooling temperatures in a report titled "Global Temperature Dives in May." The new global temperature data reveals a whopping three quarters of a degree Celsius drop in temperatures since January 2007. Watts reported late yesterday that the cooling is "equal in magnitude to the generally agreed upon ‘global warming signal' of the last 100 years." [...]  Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer, formerly of NASA and currently principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, commented on the new data.  "If you exclude the anomalous 1992 cooling from the Pinatubo volcano eruption, it's the coolest May in 20 years," Spencer said. 
EPW LINK 

'Global Warming Will Stop,' New Peer-Reviewed Study Says
Excerpt: The UK Telegraph reportson April 30: <>  "Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said. Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged. This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature ." End article excerpt. This significant new study adds to a growing body of peer-reviewed literature and other scientific analyses challenging former Vice President Al Gore and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen's March 2008 presentation of data from the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office found the Earth has had "no statistically significant warming since 1995." (LINK<> ) 
EPW LINK 

Is there a cold future just lying in wait for us? - August 13, 2008 - Belfast Telegraph
Excerpt:Based on the past Armagh measurements, this suggests that over the next two decades, global temperatures may fall by about 2 degrees C - that is, to a level lower than any we have seen in the last 100 years. Of course, nothing in science is certain. Perhaps (though I doubt it) Armagh's old measurements are wrong or perhaps there are now other factors, such as CO2 emissions, which may change things somewhat. However, temperatures have already fallen by about 0.5 degrees C over the past 12 months and, if this is only the start of it, it would be a serious concern. 

Solar Declines Freeze Global Warming, Drops Seas: 
Excerpt: By John Zyrkowski, President, Lean Techniques, LLC, © 2008 - New Book: It's the Sun Not Your SUV, St. Augustine's Press © 2008 - Foreword by 2001 IPCC Reviewer - The temperature record tracks the sun's decline in energy output over the past 10 years. In my new book, "IT'S THE SUN, NOT YOUR SUV," using the Global Warming community's own data, a conclusive proof is made that the zigzag historic temperature record is forced to change by the major changes in the sun's energy. Using solar forces only from 1880 to 1960, the increase to 0.61° C in 1998 then the recent decline to 0.32° C over 1960 is accurately forecast to within several hundredths of a degree. This miniscule change forecast is as accurate as the most current data when compared to the sun's forcing the earth's surface 280°+ C over deep space temperatures (Chart 1). Other fits to the historic record can include minor influences of green house gases (GHG). Confirming the decline in temperature is a 28% drop in the level of the oceans since October, 2006 when the oceans increased by 2.3 inches over 1992. Since then they have declined to 1.8 inches according to Topex/Jason-1 measurements from Jet Propulsion Laboratories (Chart 1a). These are miniscule changes compared to the gargantuan projections by the Global Warming community.
Climate Science LINK & http://www.itsthesunnotyoursuv.com/ Solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev, of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believe the climate is driven by the sun and predict global cooling will soon occur. The two scientists are so convinced that global temperatures will cool within the next decade they have placed a $10,000 wager with a UK scientist to prove their certainty. The criteria for the $10,000 bet will be to "compare global temperatures between 1998 and 2003 with those between 2012 and 2017. The loser will pay up in 2018," according to an April 16, 2007 article in Live Science. CO2 Science LINK
 
Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of Space Research for the Pulkovo Observatory in Russia, predicted the decline in solar irradiance is going to lead to global cooling by 2015 and "will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-60," according to Abdussamatov. Abdussamatov was also featured in a February 28, 2007 article in National Geographic titled "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says," where he reiterated his scientific findings that "man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance." http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0
 
Australian engineer Dr. Peter Harris authored an August 20, 2007 paper entitled "Probability of Sudden Global Cooling." The study Harris authored found that "the data...clearly shows the nominal 100KY cycle for glaciation and the interglacial phases and it shows that we have reached the end of the typical interglacial cycle and are due for a sudden cooling climate change. Based on this analysis we can say that there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age."  He added, "By observation of a number of natural internal processes we can find further support for the coming change and I have referred before to the confirmed slowdown of the Gulf Stream, the effect of major endothermic polar ice melt and forecast reduction in solar activity after 70 years of extreme activity not seen for 8000 years before. The Stratosphere is cooling and ice is building on the South Pole. Climate is becoming unstable. Most of these major natural processes that we are witnessing now are interdependent and occur at the end of each interglacial period, ultimately causing sudden long term cooling." (LINK http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Probability_of_Sudden_Global_Cooling.pdf> ) & http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ANURGENTSIGNALFORTHECOMINGICEAGE.pdf
 
A cold spell soon to replace global warming (Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, is staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute.)
Excerpt: Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world. Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases. [...] Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change. Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind. Man's influence on nature is a drop in the ocean.
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html 
 
Global Cooling is Imminent! (By Meteorologist Jim Clark of Florida's WZVN-TV ABC 7)
Excerpt: It was about this time (1990's) that Dr. Bill Gray, the famed hurricane climatologist, began speaking out against the global warming crisis at the National Hurricane Conferences.  He didn't just stop at criticizing the scary climate models, but went so far as to predict GLOBAL COOLING in the first have of the 21st Century. Now, nearly 15 years later, it looks like Dr. Gray may be right!  The planet has not warmed over the last decade and climate factors seem to be lining up for a global cool down, despite the ever increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2.  The approaching ‘cold snap' is not a global crisis, but when it is all said and done, we will likely have a better appreciation for the relative warmth we have enjoyed recently.
http://www.abc-7.com/Blogs/clarke.shtml
 
Hurricane Forecaster William Gray Predicts Global Cooling in 10 Years <http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080304113132.aspx
Excerpt: "We should begin to see cooling coming on," Gray said. "I'm willing to make a big financial bet on it. In 10 years, I expect the globe to be somewhat cooler than it is now, because this ocean effect will dominate over the human-induced CO2 effect and I believe the solar effect and the land-use effect. I think this is likely bigger." Gray, 79, wasn't sure if he'd be around to see his prediction come true. "I may not be around by that time," Gray said. "But, I've asked some of my students to put dandelions on my grave if that happens." Gray criticized NASA scientist and global warming alarmist James Hansen, calling him "the most egregious abuser" of data. According to Gray, Hansen's alarmism is exaggerated because the models he uses to predict the increase in global warming count on too much water vapor in the atmosphere.  "[S]o he puts that much vapor in his model and of course he gets this," Gray said. "He must get upper troposphere where the temperature is seven degrees warmer for a doubl[ing of] CO2. Well, the reason he got that was - why this upper-level warming was there - was he put too much water vapor in the model."

Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and the first Australian to become a NASA astronaut, served as staff physicist at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), dissented from global warming fears, and warned of a coming ice age. "The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon," Chapman wrote in a April 23, 2008, article tilted "Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh." "There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the U.S. and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it. Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases," Chapman explained. "The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about 1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years. The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so the ice is overdue," Chapman wrote. "All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead. It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilization may be at stake," he added. (LINK <http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23583376-7583,00.html> )

Statistician Dr. Richard Mackey authored a 2007 peer-reviewed study which found that the solar system regulates the earth's climate. The paper was published <http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002234.html>  August 17, 2007 in the Journal of Coastal Research http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002234.html> . Mackey predicted a coming global cooling in 2008. Mackey wrote: "The solar inertial motion hypothesis predicts that the period from about 2010 to 2040 will be one of relatively severe cold throughout the world. The hypothesis predicts that the emergent Sunspot Cycle No 24 will be quieter than Sunspot Cycle No 23 and just like Sunspot Cycle No 14, the weakest cycle in the last 100 years, which began in February, 1902 and ended in August, 1913. "Other things being equal, a strong geomagnetic field contributes to a warmer climate; a weaker field to a cooler climate. But the effect may not be uniform across the planet. Currently, the geomagnetic field seems to be weakening, contributing to global cooling.," Mackey wrote on February 8, 2008. "The science of climate dynamics: continues to publish findings about solar/climate relationships and internal variability of the climate system that invalidate the account of the Earth's climate dynamics presented by the IPCC; predicts the likelihood of an extended period of global cooling, if the emergent solar cycle 24 has a low amplitude, as seems increasingly likely on the basis of current science," Mackey explained. "Low amplitude solar activity cycles generally result in a cooler global climate. Two or more such cycles in succession usually result in severe cooling. In the past such sequences have induced cold epochs referred to as little ice ages. There is increasing evidence that the emergent solar cycle 24 will be low amplitude and followed by one or two more low amplitude cycles," he added. "If there is a period of severe global cooling over the next several decades as indicated by the science of solar/climate relationships and predictions of the next three solar cycles, there would be a 30 year period of far greater hardship than our ancestors experienced during the last several cycles of the quieter Sun," he added. (LINK<> ) & Herald Sun LINK & Griffith Edu Link 

Professor Dr. Will J.R. Alexander, Emeritus of the Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering at the University of Pretoria in South Africa and a former member of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters. "This whole climate change issue is rapidly disintegrating. From now onwards climate alarmists will be on the retreat. [...] All indications are that we are now on the threshold of global cooling associated with the second and less active solar cycle." - May 2, 2008 - (LINK <> ) http://www.climatescience.org.nz/images/PDFs/alexwjr.2-3.5.08.pdf

Atmospheric Scientist Tennekes: 'Sun may cause some cooling' - 'No evidence at all for catastrophic global warming'  - July 14, 2008 (By Atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical weather prediction and former director of research at The Netherlands' Royal National Meteorological Institute.) (LINK <> )

U.S Army Chief Scientist Says Sun, Not Man, Is Causing Climate Change- June 3, 2008 <>  (Dr. Bruce West, Chief Scientist, Mathematical & Information Science Directorate, Army Research Office)
[Note: Dr. West co-authored a March 2008 scientific analysis Nicola Scafetta showing the Sun "could account for as much as 69% of the increase in Earth's average temperature" (LINK ) 
Excerpt:The Army is weighing in on the global warming debate, claiming that climate change is not man-made.  Instead, Dr. Bruce West, with the Army Research Office, argues that "changes in the earth's average surface temperature are directly linked to ... the short-term statistical fluctuations in the Sun's irradiance and the longer-term solar cycles."

In an advisory to bloggers entitled "Global Warming: Fact of Fiction [sic]," an Army public affairs official promoted a conference call with West about "the causes of global warming, and how it may not be caused by the common indicates [sic] some scientists and the media are indicating."  In the March, 2008 issue of Physics Today, West, the chief scientist of the Army Research Office's mathematical and information science directorate, wrote that "the Sun's turbulent dynamics" are linked with the Earth's complex ecosystem. These connections are what is heating up the planet.

"The Sun could account for as much as 69 percent of the increase in Earth's average temperature," West noted. [...]  He argues that these groups have done a poor job modeling the Sun's impact, however, and that's why they have "significantly over-estimated" the "anthropogenic contribution to global warming." [...]  Global Warming: Fact of Fiction - 11 AM Thursday, June 5 - Is global warming really caused by humans, or is it simply the result of different aspects of the sun's dynamics?
 
Dr. Bruce West, Chief Scientist, Mathematical & Information Science Directorate, Army Research Office, will discuss the causes of global warming, and how it may not be caused by the common indicates some scientists and the media are indicating. Research conducted by Dr. West contends that the changes in the earth's average surface temperature are directly linked to two distinctly different aspects of the sun's dynamics: the short-term statistical fluctuations in the Sun's irradiance and the longer-term solar cycles. Please reply to this message if you are interested in participating. Lindy Kyzer - Public Affairs Specialist - Media Relations Division - Office of the Chief of Public Affairs - Department of the Army
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/06/army-vs-global.html
 
New Peer-Reviewed Study Shows Arctic COOLING Over last 1500 years! - Feb 5, 2008 - Published in Climate Dynamics on 30 January 2008 (LINK )    

New Report finds global sea ice GROWING: ‘World sea ice in April 2008 reached levels that were ‘unprecedented' for the month of April in over 25 years.' (LINK )  

GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE ON POLAR ICE & EARTH'S TEMPERATURE
Ivy League Geologist Explains that Earth is currently in one of coldest periods in History.
Excerpt: Ivy League geologist Dr. Robert Giegengack is a professor of earth and environmental science at the University of Pennsylvania. Giegengack noted that the history the last one billion years on the planet reveals "only about 5% of that time has been characterized by conditions on Earth that were so cold that the poles could support masses of permanent ice." Giegengack also noted "for most of Earth's history, the globe has been warmer than it has been for the last 200 years. It has rarely been cooler."
http://www.phillymag.com/articles/science_al_gore_is_a_greenhouse_gasbag  http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/al_gore_is_a_greenhouse_gasbag/

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Marc Morano Round Up

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