Lebanon's New Crisis

Written by Dani Reshef


lebcrisis1.jpgMay 9, 2008
Dani Reshef 

After a new modern communication system was stirred up by the Iranian for the sole usage of Hizbullah in Lebanon and the anti-Syrian block in Lebanon, known as the “March 14 Coalition”, claims that Hizbullah is in fact a state within a state,  a new crisis breached out in Lebanon.

The Hizbullah, in response, blocked, on Wednesday 05/07/2008,  by bulldozer all the accesses to Beirut international airport and announced a general strike. Few men were killed and wounded in exchange of fire and Lebanon plunged to the verge of civil war. 

On Thursday 05/08/2008, Hassan Nasserallah, the leader of the Hizbullah, accused in a TV broadcasted speech, the Lebanese Government of serving the interests of Israel and USA and that Hizbullah is the real legitimized governing power in Lebanon.

Since 11/23/2007, when the term of the last president Émile Lahoud’s expired, Lebanon is in a political deadlock. Although a compromise was reached about the next President – the current commander and the moderate pro Syrian Lebanese army - Gen’ MicheL Sulyman, the pro Syrian opposition demands also to man a third of the Lebanese cabinet seats, which enable the pro Syrian opposition, according to the Lebanese constitution, to veto any cabinet decision. (See – LEBANON Crisis) The opposition also demands the resignation of their firm opponent, the current PM Fuad Senoira. Next parliamentary election is scheduled to begin in next July.

The Shiite community in Lebanon is the waste majority of the population but entitled only to less then 16% of the seats in the Lebanese Parliament 20 out of 128 while the Christian, only about 17%, are entitled to 50% of the seats. The Shiite community, lead by Hizbullah, is seeking to another political balance in which the Shiite majority is no longer a small minority in the parliament but a dominant power with at least a power to veto any parliamentary decision. The point is that the Shiite community is affiliated to Iran, the Hizbullah is a proxy of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and together with the Shiite community in Iraq, will form the “Shiite axis”, as king Abdullah of Jordan preferred to call it when he warned President Bush from invading Iraq in early 2003.

“Shiite axis” will divide the Muslim world and deepen the conflict between Sunnite Arabs lead by Saudi Arabia and Shiite Muslims headed by Iran.

The timing of the last crisis in Lebanon is linked to the crisis in Sadr City in Baghdad where PM Nuri al Maliki ordered to prepare two football stadiums to receive residents from two neighborhoods in the Sadr City area ahead of yet another push to clear the areas of members of the Mahdi Army, loyal to the cleric Moqtada Sadr. (See – Open-War ).

In Iraq the Iraqi army is backed and supported by the might of the USA which ensures Nuri al Maliki’s regime.  In Lebanon the divided “March 14 Coalition”, where each of the communities and political powers have their own agenda and where the loyalty of the Shiite soldiers, the majority of the ranks in the Lebanese army, is in doubt, has only a slim chance to cope with the more devoted, highly organized and disciplined, well equipped and supported by Iran of the Pro Syrian coalition led by Hizbullah.

The equation is very simple. Hizbullah can topple the Lebanese regime and he will do so if the pressure on the pro Iranian militias in Iraq will increase and a new political balance, in Lebanon in which the Shiite community will be prominent, will not be reached.
SOURCE: Global Jihad    

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